Ireland and Australia collide at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday in the final game of the Autumn Nations Series as Joe Schmidt returns to his old stomping ground and takes on his successor, Andy Farrell.
While Schmidt departed his role with Ireland five years ago, his fingerprints are still evident on the two teams’ style of play, with both sides thriving on keeping the ball in hand.
Ireland will look to close out 2024 on a high after winning the Six Nations earlier this year and drawing the series with South Africa. However, it hasn’t been all plain sailing on home soil this November, with Farrell’s men slipping to the All Blacks in the first fixture before squeaking past Argentina and putting Fiji to the sword.
Meanwhile, a much-improved Wallabies outfit impressed at the start of the month, shocking England with a stunning try in the final moments of the match before sweeping aside Wales with real ease. But their Grand Slam momentum came to a screeching halt at Murrayfield as Scotland outclassed Schmidt’s charges.
Still, Australia will dust themselves off and Schmidt has re-jigged his starting XV to have one final crack at finishing 2024 on a positive note, while Ireland will be eager to celebrate 150 years of Irish Rugby and Cian Healy’s milestone in style.
Where the game will be won
As mentioned above, both teams thrive on keeping the ball in hand and taking it through multiple phases, highlighted by the fact that Ireland have retained possession from a higher share of their attacking rucks than any other Tier One side in 2024 (97.3%). As for the Wallabies, they have the third-best rate of any team this year (96.8%) and have also completed a higher share of their rucks in under three seconds than any other nation (65.8%).
This means that the battle lines will be drawn at the breakdown – again a trademark of Schmidt teams – and the gain line. The return of Fraser McReight is a huge boost for the Wallabies in that regard but he will really be up against it with the likes of Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris in the opposing back-row.
It’s rather old-fashioned but territory will play a big role in the game’s outcome as well considering that Ireland have conceded both the fewest defensive 22 entries per match (6.6) and the fewest points per entry (1.8) of any Tier One team in 2024. In stark contrast, Australia have conceded 11.4 entries per game, the most of any such side this year.
This will go hand-in-hand with the discipline of both teams. If the Wallabies are to go three from four in November and claim a win in Dublin, they will need to buck their trend of leaking penalties having conceded the second most penalties of any Tier One team on average in 2024. Farrell’s team have been far more disciplined but if Australia can flip the script, they can get easier entries into Ireland’s final quarter of the pitch.
One way teams have been able to turn the screw on Ireland has been at scrum time where they have been able to force penalties out of the Irish pack and Schmidt’s call to start James Slipper and Taniela Tupou this weekend suggests that he maybe targetting that facet of the game.
What they said
Reflecting on his first year in charge and final game of 2024, Wallabies head coach Schmidt said: “It’s been a challenging year where we have grown a bit as a squad, and we have an opportunity to challenge ourselves again against what is a settled and cohesive Ireland team.
“It’s going to be a big occasion at the Aviva with the 150th anniversary celebrations so I hope those in attendance get to enjoy a really good spectacle.”
Questions remain over whether Schmidt will stay on in charge of the Wallabies beyond the Lions series next year when he will go up against Farrell yet again.
But assistant coach Laurie Fisher hopes he does.
“Well, I think it would be great for Australian rugby [if he re-signed],” Fisher said.
“He’s a class act and he’s making a huge difference. But he’s got other things and he’ll make decisions around whatever’s happening in his life. So whichever way it goes, I’d wish him all the best. But in the short period that he’s been here, I think he’s made an enormous change for the better.”
Meanwhile, Ireland forwards coach Paul O’Connell spoke of the influence Schmidt still has on the team.
“He was very successful with Leinster and Ireland and probably still has a bit of an influence over things we do in here in terms of how we play the game,” he said.
“I enjoyed it [playing for Schmidt], I was an older player when he took over, I was probably hanging on a little bit and I was able to find my niche in what he was doing. I enjoyed how we played, but I probably enjoyed how he coached more than anything.
“He’s a teacher, and he had a lot of teaching principles in how he coached. I played nine times against New Zealand as a player and failed to beat them and he was part of that coaching staff that broke that duck [in 2016] and did it again in 2018.”
Players to watch
All eyes will be on the man in the green number 10 jersey, Sam Prendergast, as he is entrusted with steering Ireland to victory. Jack Crowley looked the clear-cut favourite to succeed Johnny Sexton earlier this year, but another candidate has made his presence known and it is quite telling that he has been given the nod against the Wallabies.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s success in their last Test match of the year will also be heavily reliant on the performance of loosehead prop Andrew Porter as he goes toe-to-toe with Wallabies powerhouse Taniela Tupou in the scrums. Ireland’s scrum has creaked multiple times this year and while Tupou has struggled with injuries, when he has been fit the Wallabies set-piece has benefitted.
After a stunning Test debut against Fiji, Gus McCarthy will be out to make an impact from the bench this weekend. The hooker assisted three tries on debut and crossed for one himself and while he did have some shaky moments at lineout time, he was a real force with the ball in hand.
Another man who will be in the spotlight is centre Joseph Suaalii, who has been sublime since making the switch from rugby league. He has phenomenal hands and is sensational under the high ball, particularly from restarts. The Wallabies have some real threats throughout the matchday 23 but perhaps none more so than their multi-million dollar recruit.
His midfield partner Len Ikitau has been just as superb and arguably more so this November, locking down a regular role in the centres under Schmidt. He brilliantly sent flyer Max Jorgensen away for the winning score against England but has been resolute in defence too. He will need to be on top of his game with Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw in the opposing midfield.
Main head-to-head
With the battle lines drawn at the breakdown, it’s only natural for the main individual head-to-head to be in the number seven jumpers between Josh van der Flier and Fraser McReight despite the plethora of talent in the respective backlines.
The ability of the two openside flankers to not only clear the way when in position but also come up with crucial breakdown interventions is bound to play a massive role in the match, while both players are also fantastic ball carriers and as mentioned above the gain line will also be a key facet of the game.
Prediction
Ireland certainly looked sharper last week and Australia blunter but a week is a long time in international rugby and with both teams looking to end the year on high, we expect a glorious battle at the Aviva. The Wallabies have been hit and miss this year and have managed to put in some really strong performances but even at their best it hasn’t been enough to knock over the best of the best which Ireland are. Still, we predict that it won’t be a one-sided affair with Farrell clinching a five-point victory over his old boss.
Previous results
2022: Ireland won 13-10 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 16-20 in Sydney
2018: Australia won 18-9 in Brisbane
2018: Ireland won 21-26 in Melbourne
2016: Ireland won 27-24 in Dublin
2014: Ireland won 26-23 in Dublin
2013: Australia won 15-32 in Dublin
2011: Ireland won 15-6 in Auckland
2010: Australia won 22-15 in Brisbane
2009: Drew 20-20 at Croke Park
The teams
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Tom O’Toole, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Garry Ringrose
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Joseph Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Max Jorgensen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Harry Potter
Date: Saturday, November 30
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT (Sunday, 02:10 AET)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)
