Fadeaway World uses its most accurate formula to settle the debate about the greatest No. 1 overall pick in NBA history between LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, and Shaquille O’Neal.
In recent days on our Fadeaway World’s Instagram, we released our rankings for the greatest No. 1 overall draft picks in NBA history. Shaquille O’Neal graciously shared his thoughts on the list with an Instagram post captioned “Thoughts? I say hell naw”.
The post then made its way to Gils Arena Podcast hosted by former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas who was joined by Rashad McCants, Josiah Johnson, and Lexie Brown on the panel. With all the focus on the rankings we released, we felt it was only right to put the debate to rest ourselves using our most accurate formula to decide who the greatest No. 1 pick is in NBA history.
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While we wish to thank Shaq, Arenas, McCants, Johnson, and Brown for their input on the rankings, there is only one way to conclude this topic, and that is using the formula we have already used to conclude other heated conversations such as who the GOAT of the Lakers is and who the best point guard in the NBA is right now.
Now, it is time to show Shaq, Gilbert Arenas, and everyone else having the debate about who the greatest No. 1 overall pick is in NBA history.
Best Stats
1. LeBron James – 27.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.8 BPG (5 Points)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 24.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 2.6 BPG (4 Points)
3. Shaquille O’Neal – 23.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.6 SPG, 2.3 BPG (3 Points)
4. Magic Johnson – 19.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 11.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG (2 Points)
5. Tim Duncan – 19.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.2 BPG (1 Point)
We kick this debate off with the best stats category headlined by the King of Stats, LeBron James. As the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, James is the points-per-game leader by a considerable margin over the other four No. 1 overall picks as well as the owner of some of the most unbreakable NBA playoff, NBA Finals, and regular season records in NBA history. James is the most complete all-around player on this list and that is reflected by the best collection of stats as well.
Following James in second and third place are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Shaquille O’Neal. Kareem is slightly superior to Shaq by the numbers with more points, rebounds, and blocks per game throughout his 20-year career compared to O’Neal’s 19 seasons. Kareem has also scored the second-most points in NBA history and ranks fourth in total rebounds.
Magic Johnson and Tim Duncan make up the bottom third of our best stats category but we all know their impact goes well beyond the numbers as will be reflected by the rest of this list. Johnson has the edge over Duncan slightly as a scorer and has the most assists per game in NBA history. With 7.2 rebounds and 1,9 steals per game to add to that, it is easy to see why Magic gets the one-point advantage when it comes to the stats category.
Most NBA Championships
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 6 NBA Championships (5 Points)
T2. Magic Johnson – 5 NBA Championships (4 Points)
T2. Tim Duncan – 5 NBA Championships (4 Points)
T4. LeBron James – 4 NBA Championships (2 Points)
T4. Shaquille O’Neal – 4 NBA Championships (2 Points)
Above all else, it is clear that these five greatest No. 1 overall draft picks took winning seriously and won a lot. Between the five players in this debate today, they have a combined 24 NBA championships, led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s six he won in his career. Kareem won five NBA championships in 14 seasons with the Lakers as well as one NBA championship in six seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Tied for second-place points in this category are Magic Johnson and Tim Duncan who each won five NBA championships in their NBA careers. Johnson led the Lakers to five NBA championships between 1980 and 1988 and spent his entire career in Los Angeles. Duncan also spent his entire 19-year career in San Antonio with the Spurs. Duncan was the leader of a Spurs dynasty that delivered five titles in a span of 15 years from 1999-2014.
It is kind of crazy that four NBA championships only earn two points for LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal, but that is what happens when dealing with such greatness as these No.1 picks. LeBron James has been to 10 NBA Finals in his career and has delivered two titles to the Miami Heat in 2012 and 2013, one to the Cavaliers in 2016, and another to the Lakers in 2020. O’Neal led the Lakers to a three-peat as NBA champions from 2000 through 2002 in one of the most dominant stretches by an NBA player ever. He then added a fourth title in 2006 with the Miami Heat.
Most MVP Awards
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 6 MVP Awards (5 Points)
2. LeBron James – 4 MVP Awards (4 Points)
3. Magic Johnson – 3 MVP Awards (3 Points)
4. Tim Duncan – 2 MVP Awards (2 Points)
5. Shaquille O’Neal – 1 MVP Award (1 Point)
Another category goes in the win column for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar when it comes to MVP awards. Kareem has won the most MVP awards in NBA history with six, earning three with the Milwaukee Bucks from 1970-1975 and three with the Lakers from 1976-1980. He won back-to-back MVP awards in both 1971 and 1972 in Milwaukee as well as in 1976 and 1977 in Los Angeles.
Coming in second for most NBA awards is LeBron James with four. If we are being realistic, James could have six or seven of these hanging on his mantle. James took home back-to-back MVP awards with the Cavaliers in 2009 and 2010 as well as with the Heat in 2012 and 2013. In third and getting three points with three MVP awards is Magic Johnson. He took home all three of his MVP awards in four years from 1987-1990.
The fact that Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal bring up the rear in this category with three combined MVP awards is a shame. Duncan won two MVP awards in 19 years with the Spurs. They came in back-to-back seasons in 2002 and 2003. The 2003 season ended in an NBA title for Duncan. For Shaq, his lone MVP award came in 2000 in arguably the most dominant single season in a player’s career. Shaq brought home MVP, a championship, and Finals MVP all in that same year.
Most Finals MVP Awards
1. LeBron James – 4 Finals MVP Awards (5 Points)
T2. Magic Johnson – 3 Finals MVP Awards (4 Points)
T2. Tim Duncan – 3 Finals MVP Awards (4 Points)
T2. Shaquille O’Neal – 3 Finals MVP Awards (4 Points)
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 2 Finals MVP Awards (1 Point)
LeBron James gets another win for the most Finals MVP categories with four awards in four Finals victories. James is the only player in NBA history to be named Finals MVP for three different franchises and is also the only player on this list to earn Finals MVP in all of his championship victories. James is so dominant on the NBA Finals stage that he has an argument for more Finals MVPs in his losing efforts.
Tied for second in this category with three Finals MVP awards apiece are Magic Johnson, Tim Duncan, and Shaq. Johnson made history in 1980 by becoming the youngest Finals MVP ever and added two more in 1982 and 1987. Duncan captured all three of his Finals MVP awards in his first three championship wins in 1999, 2003, and 2005. Shaq won three in a row with the Lakers from 2000 through 2002 in one of the most incredibly dominant runs in NBA history by a single player.
Bringing up the rear with two Finals MVP in six NBA Finals wins is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Kareem earned his first Finals MVP award in 1971 with a championship win while with the Milwaukee Bucks. In 1985, he would add his second Finals MVP with the Lakers, becoming the oldest Finals MVP in NBA History.
Most Defensive Player Of The Year Awards
T1. LeBron James – 0 Defensive Player Of The Year Awards (0 Points)
T1. Magic Johnson – 0 Defensive Player Of The Year Awards (0 Points)
T1. Shaquille O’Neal – 0 Defensive Player Of The Year Awards (0 Points)
T1.Tim Duncan – 0 Defensive Player Of The Year Awards (0 Points)
T1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 0 Defensive Player Of The Year Awards (0 Points)
It is pretty unbelievable that each one of these five No. 1 overall draft picks has never won a Defensive Player of the Year Award. Many think there were times in each one of their careers when they should have won at least one. LeBron James in 2013 is a prime example of this as is Tim Duncan in 2003. Kareem, Shaq, and Magic are all capable defenders who had extremely high defensive peaks as well.
As it stands, none of these players qualify for any points for this category which is just as shocking as it is disappointing.
1. LeBron James- 19 All-NBA Team Selections (5 Points)
T2. Tim Duncan – 15 All-NBA Team Selections (4 Points)
T2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 15 All-NBA Team Selections (4 Points)
4. Shaquille O’Neal – 14 All-NBA Team Selections (2 Points)
5. Magic Johnson – 10 All-NBA Team Selections (1 Point)
Another testament to just how great each of these No. 1 overall draft picks was in their careers is the combination of 73 All-NBA Team selections between the five of them. LeBron James leads the way with 19 total selections and has earned one every season except for his rookie year. Of his 19 All-NBA Team selections, 13 of them were to the First Team, two were to the Second Team, and four were to the Third Team.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Tim Duncan tied for second place with 15 ALl-NBA Team selections apiece in their long and illustrious careers. For Kareem, 10 of his selections would be to the First Team and five would be to the Second Team. Duncan also earned 10 selections to the First Team while also grabbing three Second Team selections and two Third Team selections.
It is pretty amazing that 14 and 10 All-NBA Team selections in your career only get Shaq and Magic two and one points, respectively in this category. Magic gets hurt by his lack of longevity in his career while O’Neal’s 14 selections fall just short of the top-three players here.
Most All-Defensive Team Selections
1. Tim Duncan – 15 All-Defensive Team Selections (5 Points)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 11 All-Defensive Team Selections (4 Points)
3. LeBron James – 6 All-Defensive Team Selections (3 Points)
4. Shaquille O’Neal – 3 All-Defensive Team Selections (2 Points)
5. Magic Johnson – 0 All-Defensive Team Selections (1 Point)
Two big men dominated the All-Defensive Team category as the only two players with 10 or more selections in their careers. Tim Duncan received 15 selections to the All-Defensive Team in 19 seasons with the Spurs. With over 10.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game in his career, it is easy to see why. Kareem follows him closely with 11 selections in his career with the Bucks and Lakers. Kareem won one rebounding title and three blocks titles in his career, averaging 4.0 or more blocks per game on multiple occasions.
LeBron James is in sole possession of third place in this category, earning all six of his selections between the 2009 and 2014 seasons. This included five selections to the First Team as well but has not earned any selection since 2014. As for Shaquille O’Neal, he gets two points for his three All-Defensive Team selections that he earned to the Second Team in 2000, 2001, and 2002.
Magic Johnson’s defensive abilities have gotten extremely underrated over time and his zero selections to an All-Defensive Team reflects that. Johnson was a versatile and pesky off-ball defender who had a knack for picking off passing lanes regularly. Unfortunately, those things don’t earn you points in our formula.
Most All-Star Selections
T1. LeBron James – 19 All-Star Selections (5 Points)
T1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 19 All-Star Selections (5 Points)
T3. Shaquille O’Neal – 15 All-Star Selections (3 Points)
T3. Tim Duncan – 15 All-Star Selections (3 Points)
5. Magic Johnson – 12 All-Star Selections (1 Point)
The number of accolades continues to astonish in the All-Star selections category as there are a combined 80 of them between these five No. 1 overall picks. Almost half of them belong to the two players tied at the top with the most All-Star selections. LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar each have 19 All-Star appearances to their names over the course of 20 seasons in their careers. LeBron James has also brought home three All-Star MVP awards while Kareem never won one in his career.
Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal, arguably the two top players of the 2000s, come in a tie for third place in this category with 15 All-Star selections apiece in their careers. O’Neal would go on to win three All-Star Game MVP awards in his career while Duncan won one as well in 2000. Magic Johnson was an All-Star in 12 of the 13 seasons he played in the NBA and won two All-Star Game MVP awards. Once again, his point total is hurt by his lack of longevity due to his health issues.
Total Win Shares
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 273.4 Total Win Shares (5 Points)
2. LeBron James – 255.1 Total Win Shares (4 Points)
3. Tim Duncan – 206.4 Total Win Shares (3 Points)
4. Shaquille O’Neal – 181.7 Total Win Shares (2 Points)
5. Magic Johnson – 155.8 Total Win Shares (1 Point)
Another category that will be friendlier to the players who remained effective over a long period is total win shares. Only three players accumulated over 200 win shares in their careers with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James taking the top two spots once again. Kareem led the NBA nine times in win shares in his career with three seasons with 20.0 or more. In his NBA career, Lebron James has led the NBA five times in win shares and recorded just one season with 20.0 or more. His consistent greatness and impact have him ready to take over this category by the time his career is over.
Tim Duncan is the only other player on this list with 200 or more win shares in his career. In Duncan’s 19 seasons with the Spurs, he led the NBA nine times in win shares as well and had three such seasons with 20.0 or more. O’Neal and Johnson bring up the rear in this category as well, considering their lack of sustained impact over a long time. At their peaks, they were the most impactful players in their respective eras, it just needed to last longer to earn more points.
PER
1. LeBron James – 27.2 PER (5 Points)
2. Shaquille O’Neal – 26.4 PER (4 Points)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 24.6 PER (3 Points)
4. Tim Duncan – 24.2 PER (2 Points)
5. Magic Johnson – 24.1 PER (1 Point)
PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, is a pretty good way to measure a player’s impact on the court. It takes both positive and negative results into account, leading to a decent but not definitive conclusion. When it comes to PER, LeBron James has been a 23.0 or better player for the last 19 seasons. He led the NBA six times in PER and recorded four seasons with a rating that exceeded 30.0.
Shaquille O’Neal is the only other player on this list whose PER is higher than 25.0. O’Neal also led the NBA five times in PER from 1998 through 2002 with three seasons above 30.0. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is very close to the 25.0 career PER mark but falls just shy at 24.6. Although he never reached the legendary 30.0 mark, he did have nine seasons in which he led the NBA overall in PER.
Tim Duncan and Magic Johnson are separated by just 0.1 in their career PER ratings which is incredible considering their body of work. Duncan never led the NBA in PER, but in his 19 seasons, he only ever fell below 21.0 once which came in his final season in 2016. Magic also never led the NBA in PER, but he also never had a season in which he finished with a rating lower than 20.5.
Who Is The Greatest No. 1 Overall Draft Pick In NBA History?
1. LeBron James – 38 Points (5 Categories Won)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (36 Points (4 Categories Won)
3. Tim Duncan (28 Points (1 Category Won)
4. Shaquille O’Neal – 23 Points (0 Categories Won)
5. Magic Johnson – 18 Points (0 Categories Won)
With these players officially through our most accurate formula, here is what we have discovered about our initial list of the greatest No. 1 overall draft picks. LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are exactly where they are supposed to be at No. 1 and No. 2 on the list. James edges out Kareem slightly as the greatest in NBA history and a top-two player overall in NBA history.
The real surprise is how Tim Duncan edges out both Shaquille O’Neal and Magic Johnson by a considerable amount in third place. Furthermore. Magic Johnson’s longevity hurting him so bad that he didn’t even reach 20 overall points is a shock and shows a reason to tweak our formula even further. Duncan’s finish in this spot strengthens the case for him as a top-five player ever and for O’Neal to get the same recognition as well. This isn’t to say Magic Johnson doesn’t deserve his spot at third on our initial list but are we overlooking how great Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal were?
While this formula is not down to an exact science, it gives a clear picture of the greatness of these five players and tells us all we need to know as to why they were No. 1 overall picks in the first place. Combined, these players brought in 24 NBA championships and 16 MVP awards in their careers which are incredible feats.
Who knows? Maybe Shaq will see the way we broke it down here, see the whole argument, and finally agree with our findings. While his resume is not on the same level as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James, O’Neal is right there on the same level as Tim Duncan and greater than Magic Johnson. Any player would be thrilled with those results after a career as illustrious as his, right?
