With the NBA playoffs cover, fans and analysts alike are turning their attention to the upcoming free agency period. With several big-name players set to hit the market, the landscape of the league could look very different come next season. Notable free agents include Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Draymond Green, all of whom could potentially shift the balance of power in the league depending on where they end up. Not to mention, there are other All-Stars and key role players across the league looking for new homes as well if the opportunity comes their way.
Of course, predicting where these players will end up is no easy task. There are a number of factors that could influence their decisions, including the quality of the team, the city they’ll be playing in, and the amount of money they’ll be offered. Despite the uncertainty, however, one thing is clear: the NBA landscape is set to undergo some major changes this summer. Whether it’s through the signing of a big-name free agent or a blockbuster trade, fans can expect plenty of excitement in the coming months.
Without further ado, here are the top-15 free agents this summer and where each of them will likely end up. It is important to note that recently traded Kristaps Porzingis has picked up his $36 million player option and won’t be included, and he would have been a top 5 player in the 2023 free agent pool if he was available.
Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets
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Cameron Johnson is a talented small forward who last played for the Brooklyn Nets following the blockbuster Kevin Durant trade involving the Phoenix Suns during the 2022-23 NBA season. He was drafted 11th overall in the 2019 NBA draft and showed promise as a three-point shooter but has since developed into a solid all-around player. Johnson averaged 15.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 1.9 APG on 47.0% FG, 40.4% 3-PT FG, and 84.2% FT.
As far as where Johnson will end up, the Brooklyn Nets are a team that is currently in need of a forward who can shoot from beyond the arc and continue with the rebuilding process. With their recent acquisition of Mikal Bridges, the Nets have become an exciting young team in the Eastern Conference and are looking to add more depth to their roster. Expect the Nets to offer a 4-year deal worth at least $84 million.
Jordan Clarkson – Miami Heat
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The Miami Heat are in need of a scoring guard off the bench, and Clarkson has proven himself to be a reliable scorer throughout his career. He averaged 20.8 PPG on 44.4% shooting from the field last season and was a key contributor for the Utah Jazz in their playoff run during the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert days.
Additionally, the Heat have a strong culture and a winning mentality, which could appeal to Clarkson as he looks to join a team that can compete for a championship. The Heat also have a history of developing players and getting the most out of their talent, which could help Clarkson continue to improve his game. After losing in the NBA Finals, Miami needed more scoring, and Clarkson seems to be the type of player who will enjoy living and competing in South Beach, which makes the pair a match made in heaven.
Christian Wood – Detroit Pistons
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Since Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavericks had already made it clear that the team is unlikely to keep Christian Wood, the player is generating interest from multiple teams in free agency. However, there are several factors that suggest he may ultimately choose to sign with the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons have the ability to offer him a significant role on the team, as they are in the midst of a rebuilding phase and are in need of talented players like Wood, who can help the team win games.
Furthermore, the Pistons have the cap space to offer Wood a competitive contract, which is important given his impressive performance this season. Detroit is ranked 29th in the NBA in salary cap with around $73 million in salaries for the 2023-24 season, so the franchise can offer Wood a contract of around $15 million per season if they want a reunion with the two-way big man.
Brook Lopez – Houston Rockets
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Brook Lopez has developed into one of the best modern NBA centers, as he can space the floor and also play elite defense around the rim. A former low-post scorer without defensive s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁s, Lopez has completely revolutionized his game and has become a valuable starter for any team in the NBA. In 2023, Lopez posted 15.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 2.5 BPG on 53.1% FG, 37.4% 3-PT FG, and 78.4% FT.
It is expected that the Houston Rockets are major contenders for Lopez’s signature and could offer him the most money on the market. Whether that entails a three-year deal worth $45-$50 million or possibly more, the 35-year-old Lopez wants to go after his final major contract and will have his eyes open to the best opportunity which could come from Houston. The Rockets have the most cap space in the NBA next season, with under $60 million in contracts.
Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers
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Lakers fans and the Lakers organization as a whole want Austin Reaves back. The 25-year-old has blossomed into a talented starter who can shoot the three, compete on defense, and actually come through in the clutch. Nobody expected the undrafted Reaves to be this impactful, but the team’s struggles in recent years have forced Frank Vogel and Darvin Ham to experiment with Reaves and give him minutes.
That has worked because the 6’5” shooting guard posted 16.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 4.6 APG on 46.4% FG, 44.3% 3-PT FG, and 89.5% FT in his first playoff run with the Lakers. Considering that Los Angeles wants to match any offer the player gets, it is very likely Reaves returns to the Lakers as the starting shooting guard behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the pecking order. Reaves is after at least $100 million in free agency, and he might get it over four or five years.
Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers
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Jerami Grant had an impressive first season with the Portland Trail Blazers on an individual level, posting 20.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 2.4 APG on 47.5% FG, 40.1% 3-PT FG, and 81.3% FT. The forward competes on defense consistently, can attack the basket with force, and can space the floor well enough to be respected. Considering the Trail Blazers want to keep most of their players, Grant will likely return.
The forward is only 29 years old, and he made almost $21 million this season, so he could earn even more money per season on a five-year deal. There will be teams out there interested in Grant’s signature, but Portland is ranked 22nd in terms of salaries in the 2024 season, which means they can afford to pay Grant and keep him for the long term. No doubt, the forward’s veteran experience will help rookie Scoot Henderson learn the ropes of the NBA.
Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls
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The Chicago Bulls simply do not want to blow it up, although they will likely trade either Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan at some point. With regards to their starting center, the Bulls will bring back Nikola Vucevic, according to reports. The center must like living in Chicago and he had a strong season individually by posting 17.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG on 52.0% FG, 34.9% 3-PT FG, and 83.5% FT.
The center is a capable double-double machine every night, and that is why the Bulls will likely pay him $65 million over three seasons. That means Vucevic will be paid until he is almost 36 years old, so that is a strong deal for both parties. Chicago probably does not want to tank and lose games on purpose, so keeping the center could fit into their plans for the upcoming season.
Kyle Kuzma – Dallas Mavericks
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Kyle Kuzma decided against returning to the Washington Wizards and is looking for anywhere near maximum money in free agency. There probably isn’t a team looking to pay Kuzma that amount of money, but the Dallas Mavericks is a team that will likely have enough money to bring in the forward and insert him into the starting lineup alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the latter who might re-sign as well.
Dallas dumped Davis Bertans contract on the Oklahoma City Thunder in a trade Thursday afternoon, which means they have space to pursue Kuzma for a four-year deal that could pay him a minimum of $20 million per season. Otherwise, the Utah Jazz have the 12th-best payroll heading into the 2023-24 season and could throw money at the 27-year-old to acquire him and complete the core of youngsters that includes All-Star Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, and Walker Kessler.
Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks
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There is no way the Milwaukee Bucks will let Khris Middleton walk away, as he is one of the NBA’s best sidekicks in terms of being an elite spot-up shooter, clutch performer, and wing defender. Middleton was Giannis Antetokounmpo’s best teammate in the 2020-21 season when the Bucks won the NBA championship. Middleton has struggled with injuries as he only played 33 games this season, and that was a massive factor in Milwaukee’s putrid first-round exit.
However, Middleton is turning 32 in under two months which means he has another three or four years to play at an All-Star level. Considering the fact that Milwaukee is competing for a championship, they will likely retain Middleton on a deal that could pay at least $30 million per season on a four-year deal. As long as the Bucks have Giannis, they will need to keep most of their roster intact.
Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors do not want to lose Fred VanVleet. The guard was part of the championship team in the 2018-19 season and has since developed into an All-Star. The combo guard posted 19.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 7.2 APG on 34.2% shooting from three this season despite the fact that the Raptors missed the playoffs. Going forward, Toronto can’t afford to lose their best players.
Scottie Barnes is the future at 21 years old, but VanVleet’s presence as a leader, defender, and scorer means the Raptors will likely ink the player to a three-year deal worth around $90 million at least. VanVleet is clearly above-average as a starting guard and since Toronto isn’t exactly a major free-agent destination, retaining key talents will be the key for the Raptors this summer.
D’Angelo Russell – Chicago Bulls
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D’Angelo Russell is not only a solid scorer and playmaker, but he is 27 years old. Even if the guard struggled in the playoffs with the Lakers, he could be given the chance to get back to All-Star status. The former No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft was an All-Star in 2018-19, posting 21.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 7.0 APG on 36.9% 3-PT FG so he can get back to those numbers in the right situation.
It seems likely the Los Angeles Lakers want a chance to acquire another All-Star, and if it means moving D’Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade, it could happen. The team mostly linked is the Chicago Bulls, who have both DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. Either DeRozan or LaVine would fit in Los Angeles’ plans, so a deal for Russell to acquire one of them would be a win-win situation for all parties.
Russell Westbrook – Miami Heat
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Russell Westbrook was seemingly down and out following the disastrous Los Angeles Lakers stint, but the trade to the Clippers saved the former MVP’s career. Westbrook was a force in the playoffs for the Clippers, posting 23.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 7.4 APG on 41.0% FG. Russ is no longer an All-Star player, but he can provide valuable minutes as a competitor and offensive player for any contending team.
No doubt, the Miami Heat want to re-tool this summer, and bringing in Westbrook could boost their chances to return back to the NBA Finals. The Heat have gone 0-2 in the last two Finals appearances and lack of star power has been the biggest downfall. Westbrook is an upgrade over Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry, and he can form a dynamic starting point guard alongside Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors have shockingly traded 24-year-old guard Jordan Poole to the Washington Wizards for 38-year-old Chris Paul. Getting rid of Poole essentially means that the Warriors have complete faith in their leader, Draymond Green. Green is no longer an offensive threat and is nowhere near being an All-Star again, but he means just as much to Golden State as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson do.
Green is the bodyguard of the team, the emotional leader, the primary defender, and the go-to playmaker. Everyone is aware that Golden State cannot compete for a championship without Green because Curry and Thompson aren’t exactly the physically toughest competitors and vocal leaders. No matter what critics have to say, Draymond is an intimidator in the modern NBA, and his value to Golden State cannot be understated, which is why he will return to the team in all likelihood.
James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers
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The Houston Rockets rumors were heating up all summer, but it seems to have cooled down in recent times. That means The Beard might realize that re-signing with the Philadelphia 76ers makes the most sense, as the team has reigning MVP Joel Embiid. Harden averaged 21.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and a league-leading 10.7 APG alongside Embiid as he led the team to the second round of the playoffs. Harden is still an elite offensive player, even if he does not score 30 points per game like he used to with the Rockets.
Philly can’t afford to lose James Harden and not replace him because the core of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey won’t be enough. That is why the 76ers will do their best to move Tobias Harris this summer and retain Harden by paying him the max dollars he is seeking. Failing to trade Harris could make it difficult to pay Harden, but expect Daryl Morey and the 76ers management to find a way to keep The Beard in town for another championship run in the 2023-24 season.
Kyrie Irving – Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks made the blockbuster deal for Kyrie Irving last season, so they will be hell-bent on keeping him alongside Luka Doncic. There is no way Dallas would have traded for Irving if there wasn’t a “handshake agreement” with Irving that the player would be offered the maximum amount of money to stay with the team. Luka led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals in the 2021-22 season, so a player of Irving’s caliber could be the difference in getting the Mavericks to the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2010-11 season.
Irving averaged 27.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 5.5 APG on 49.4% FG, 37.9% 3-PT FG, and 90.5% FT last season, so clearly, he is still a superstar player at 31 years old. Expect the Mavericks to pay Irving the max amount of money which could exceed $35 million per season for the former NBA champion. Luka Doncic must be kept happy, and if the Slovenian signs off on keeping Irving, the Mavericks will comply at all costs.
